2019 Predictions: Calibration Results

Scott's annual scoring of his 2019 predictions — 118 forecasts across US politics, econ/tech, world, the SSC survey, and (heavily) his personal life, marked true/false, with the calibration chart (50%->64%, 60%->68%, 70%->71%, 80%->83%, 90%->94%, 95%->100%). Verdict: a good year, ~4% underconfident across the board (he left a black-swan cushion that 2019 didn't need), worst misses being underestimating Bitcoin and overestimating SpaceX's crewed-launch schedule. Closes: 'I forgot to make predictions for 2020 until now, which in retrospect was the best prediction I've ever made' (April 2020).

Quality 52 · Solid. 52 — Solid. A worthy public-calibration exercise but, as a post, mostly a prediction list plus a calibration chart and light commentary; sits with the other annual predictions/calibration posts (~50-53).

Claude’s paradigm shift 25 · Slight. 25 — Slight; routine annual practice, no novelty.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 — Scott's public-calibration habit is mildly influential in rationalist circles, but this specific results post is routine.