Predictions For 2019
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Follow-up reading
↳ 2019 Predictions: Calibration Results — Prediction/forecast · Apr 2020
Summary
The annual calibration exercise: ~118 numbered probability predictions for Jan 1 2020 across politics, econ/tech, world events, SSC surveys, and personal life, to be scored later for calibration. A bare forecasting list.
Why this score
Quality 50 · Solid. A bare prediction list with no argument — near-floor, consistent with SSC-449 (49) and SSC-523 (50). 50.
Claude’s paradigm shift 28 · Slight. Routine annual list, no novelty. B28.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. The predictions/calibration ritual is durable within the rationalist community, but this individual list has negligible reach. RWI1.