Scott Alexander, curated
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Autogenderphilia Is Common And Not Especially Related To Transgender

Quality
72
Strong
Claude Shift
56
Moderate
RWI
2
of 10

Summary

Uses SSC-survey data to test Blanchard & Bailey's theory that autogynephilia (arousal at imagining oneself as a woman) is the main cause of trans identity. Across 6,715 respondents, autogenderphilia turns out common in CIS groups too -- notably, gay cis men have as much autoandrophilia as lesbian trans women have autogynephilia. Scott proposes a simpler, reverse-causation hypothesis: if you IDENTIFY as a gender AND are ATTRACTED to that gender, autogenderphilia to it follows naturally (biological males having more of every fetish explains the rest) -- so identification causes the fetish, not the fetish causing transition. Addresses objections (weird-internet-sample; question-validity; the histograms looking like one shared process), and frames it via the general failure mode where a 'condition' trait is also common in the non-condition population (voices/schizophrenia, HPPD). Even-handed; data openly shared.

Why this score

Quality 72 · Strong. Strong, upper (72). A careful, dispassionate, data-driven treatment of a charged topic, with a genuine analytical contribution (the reverse-causation hypothesis, well-supported by the cis-comparison data) and the sharp 'trait common in the non-condition population too' framing. Held below Excellent as survey-analysis on a contested question rather than a definitive result.

Claude’s paradigm shift 56 · Moderate. Notable-edge (56). The identify-as + attracted-to -> autogenderphilia reverse-causation reframe of the Blanchard debate is fresh and non-obvious.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 -- minor/within-blog. A contribution to the autogynephilia / trans-etiology debate (Bailey responded); within-discourse, no material footprint.