Scott Alexander, curated
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Did A Melatonin Patent Inspire Current Dose Confusion?

Quality
63
Strong
Claude Shift
44
Moderate
RWI
2
of 10

Follows up on

Melatonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know — MMTYWTK · Jul 2018

Summary

A short follow-up to the Melatonin MMTYWTK. A commenter surfaced Dr. Wurtman's (MIT) claim that MIT patented melatonin-for-sleep only up to 1 mg, so supplement makers used HIGHER doses (3-10 mg) partly to dodge the royalty — which is why drugstore melatonin is overdosed. Scott loves the 'perversity of the pharmaceutical system' story but is appropriately skeptical (the commenter's objections: who patents only up to a dose? why 10 mg not 2? lots of supplements are high-dose anyway; MIT never sued the correct-dose sellers), and frames the meta-question — 'the endless drudgery of rationality training': how much to discount a theory for inventor bias vs. expert authority vs. efficient-market priors. An EDIT (a patent lawyer) resolves it: natural-hormone patents cover only specific uses; the patent likely guided companies but expired ~5 years ago, and 0.3 mg is now legal but habits stuck.

Why this score

Quality 63 · Strong. A thoughtful, appropriately skeptical follow-up note with a good epistemic-humility meta-point and a satisfying patent-lawyer resolution, but brief and dependent on the Melatonin deep-dive. Strong-low.

Claude’s paradigm shift 44 · Moderate. A follow-up note; the patent-perversity story isn't Scott's and the inventor-bias meta-point is recurring. Moderate-low.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A within-discourse follow-up; no material-world effect. Within-blog influence.