List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of “Superforecasting”

A curated list of passages Scott highlighted in Tetlock's 'Superforecasting,' carried by genuinely substantive annotations: the Good Judgment Project crushing its competitors; his pushback on Tetlock's evidence-based-medicine-drove-progress claim (the big advances are mostly pre-EBM; EBM may even retard innovation); the standout Cochrane-cardiologist trick (reversing the trial results to expose that 'almost nobody has consistent meta-level principles' — people sculpt their methodology standards around their object-level views); the granularity and extremizing findings; 'hindsight is 20/70'; the Wehrmacht mission-command example; and intellectual-humility-vs-self-doubt.

Quality 60 · Strong. A curated-excerpts post lifted well above a bare quote-dump by Scott's substantive annotations — the Cochrane-cardiologist 'no consistent meta-level principles' insight especially — but an excerpts format nonetheless. Solid, a notch above the Willpower-highlights for the meatier commentary.

Claude’s paradigm shift 36 · Slight. An annotated quote list; the original insight is in the annotations, not the form. Slight.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A within-discourse highlights post; no material-world effect. Within-blog influence.