Predictions For 2016

The prediction-MAKING half of Scott's annual calibration ritual: 100 probability-tagged predictions for 2016 across world events (elections, wars, markets) and personal/community life (SSC traffic, Unsong, his own plans). It is essentially a bare list with a one-paragraph intro -- no analysis, since the scoring comes a year later (cf. the 2018 results post). Its value is as an artifact of, and public model for, calibrated forecasting (a practice Scott helped popularize and many readers emulate), and as a time capsule -- but as a standalone post it carries minimal prose or argument.

Quality 52 · Solid. Mid-Solid (52): a competent, disciplined forecasting artifact and a meaningful exemplar of calibration practice, but as a post it's a bare list with essentially no analysis, which caps it in the middle of the Solid band (just above survey-data posts).

Claude’s paradigm shift 35 · Slight. Slight (35): an instance of the valuable annual-calibrated-prediction practice rather than a novel contribution; the practice itself predates and isn't original to this post.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. The prediction-making half of his annual calibration ritual; a disciplined forecasting artifact and public exemplar of calibration practice, but a bare list within the discourse, no material-world reach → RWI 2.