Predictions For 2014

Scott's 2014 New Year prediction list — global, online-community, and personal predictions each tagged with a probability (50/60/70/80/90/95/99), to be scored later for calibration. Content-light as a standalone read, but an early instance of the durable annual-prediction/calibration practice that became an SSC/ACX institution and a template many readers adopted.

Quality 50 · Solid. Solid (50): a bare calibrated-prediction list with little standalone analytical content; scored for its role in the ongoing calibration practice rather than as an essay.

Claude’s paradigm shift 25 · Slight. Slight (25): no novelty of argument; a forecasting exercise.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Minor-plus (2): RWI lifted slightly above negligible because it seeds/continues the durable public-calibration practice that influenced how readers track predictions.