Prediction is very difficult, especially of the past

A short reader-participation stub (now closed): Scott hosts a prediction test using 22 years of Pew values data (1987-2009), asking readers to estimate current agreement levels, the change since 1987, and their own politics — to test his hypothesis that people underestimate the strength of their own political position (an 'underdog effect'), with special interest in whether Neoreactionaries (who believe in the power of the 'Cathedral') do so. The substance — the actual results and analysis — lives in a promised follow-up; this post is just the setup.

Quality 48 · Solid. Solid, low (48). A neat little experiment design (the underdog-effect test), but as a scored post it is a near-content-free call-for-participation stub whose payoff is elsewhere. Low-Solid, consistent with survey/announcement stubs.

Claude’s paradigm shift 40 · Moderate. Slight, high (40). The experiment idea is mildly clever, but there's no developed argument or finding here to be novel about.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. Negligible (1). A reader-survey setup with no real-world footprint.