Noisy Poll Results And Reptilian Muslim Climatologists from Mars

The essay that coined the LIZARDMAN'S CONSTANT — scored on merit, not its karma 49, because the concept genuinely entered broad polling/journalism/data-science discourse. Thesis: when a poll measures a very unpopular belief, noise (jokesters, button-misreaders, trolls who answer 'Martian,' good-natured 'F#&k you, pollster' respondents) sets a ~4–5% floor that swamps any weak true signal — '4% of Americans believe lizardmen run the world' IS that floor. Hence the call for control questions ('Do you believe Obama is a hippopotamus?'). Extends to 'poll answers as attire' / symbolic belief (Professing and Cheering — 'Obama is the Anti-Christ' just means 'Boo Obama'), and to the Lewandowsky 'NASA-faked-the-moon-landing -> climate skeptics are conspiracy theorists' study, which a literal handful of trolling responses corrupted (capped by Lewandowsky's chutzpah-laden 'Recursive Fury' follow-up claiming the critics proved his point). Lesson: polls detecting weak signals deserve a large grain of salt.

Quality 79 · Excellent. Excellent — a canonical, durably-influential methodological contribution. The 'Lizardman's Constant' coinage is now widely invoked far beyond LW whenever a poll shows ~4% endorsing something absurd, the mechanism (noise floor) is genuinely important, and the Lewandowsky case study is a vivid illustration delivered with characteristic humor. Sits in the LW-classic 78–80 cluster, just below Noncentral-Fallacy (81). A clear on-merit standout against its low karma.

Claude’s paradigm shift 60 · Notable shift. Major — coins a genuinely novel, exported concept (the survey noise floor) and crystallizes symbolic-belief/attire reporting; high novelty in its 2013 moment.

Real-world impact 4 · Moderate. Coined 'Lizardman's Constant,' a methodological concept (a ~4-5% noise floor in polls of unpopular beliefs) now invoked far beyond LW across polling, journalism, and data science. Genuinely durable and broad conceptual uptake, but no material or population-level change — mid RWI.