Book Review: Paper Belt On Fire

Scott's review of Michael Gibson's Paper Belt On Fire (Thiel Fellowship / anti-college / Great-Stagnation memoir). Grants Gibson's point (talented dropouts can succeed) but delivers the real analysis: the adverse-selection trap that makes 'just skip college' fail at scale (the non-degree pool is 99% people who couldn't/didn't, so you get lumped in), and the 'what's the alternative for the average student?' critique — leaving the Paper Belt 'at best barely smoldering'.

Quality 73 · Strong. Strong: an entertaining, sharp review with a genuine analytical contribution (the adverse-selection/credentialism-signaling framing); a notch below the top finalists.

Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Notable: the adverse-selection critique of the anti-credential thesis.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse review; no institution-moving effect. =2.