Mantic Monday 6/13/22

A shorter, self-described 'boring' Mantic Monday. Monkeypox forecasts (with the perennial fat-tail-crazy-predictions question), a Ukraine warcasting update, the Musk-vs-Marcus AGI-2029 bet (the most interesting bit — Marcus's five concrete criteria for AGI: read a new novel and answer thematic questions, watch a movie, cook in a kitchen, write 10,000+ lines of bug-free code from natural-language specs, convert arbitrary proofs to verifiable symbols; all added to Metaculus), market roundups, and shorts. Scott himself flags it as boring, with better material 'waiting in the wings.'

Quality 62 · Strong. Solid-plus (62, lower Monday band). The Musk-Marcus AGI-criteria framing is genuinely interesting, but Scott is right that this is a lighter, thinner roundup than the meatier Mantic Mondays.

Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate (42). Reports a fast-moving space with light commentary.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a forecasting roundup; negligible real-world effect.