Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Follows up on
↳ The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication — Essay · Dec 2021
Summary
A 154-word micro-addendum to 'The Phrase No Evidence Is A Red Flag', illustrating the classical-vs-Bayesian point: a single Omicron-lethality study that 'found no evidence' dropped the Metaculus prediction from 72% to 63%, which then recovered to 80% — Bayesian updating vs classical null-hypothesis framing.
Why this score
Quality 48 · Solid. Deep-tail floor: a tiny but substantive addendum making one clean point; batch floor.
Claude’s paradigm shift 25 · Slight. Slight/None: a short follow-up.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. Micro-addendum; negligible material reach. =1.