Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
A Mantic Monday. Google's internal prediction market (Gleangen/Prophit) and the sharp Hal Varian point about why corporate prediction markets struggle — the questions you most want answered (about acquisitions etc) create SEC insider-trading problems for anyone who views the market. Plus the ongoing long-term-market options thread (can options directly move the market price?), Robin Hanson's conditional-markets-for-policy idea (the prison-conditions example, and Scott's honest 'you might not learn much' caveat), the Guyenet weight-loss 'fortified essay' on Metaculus, and market roundups (Omicron peak, SAT-optional colleges).
Why this score
Quality 63 · Strong. Solid-plus (63, mid Monday band). The Varian corporate-insider-trading point and the fortified-essay format give it standalone value; a lighter monthly roundup.
Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate (42). Reports and lightly analyzes a fast-moving space.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a forecasting roundup; negligible real-world effect.