Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Follow-up reading
↳ Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change — Highlights (companion) · Oct 2021
Summary
Argues against giving up on kids because of climate change. (1) Quality-of-life: per the IPCC, climate is bad-but-not-world-ending (sea-level-rise visualizations, First-World slack - the golf-course-water point, the 'your kid will be in the luckiest 1% of humans ever' framing, the antinatalist-consistency challenge). (2) The moral/carbon argument fails: 1-2% not having kids does ~nothing for emissions but skews elections toward climate-inaction (kids inherit parents' politics - a much larger effect on a razor-thin majority); the viral '60 tons of carbon/year' study is methodologically bogus (it's a vast clan of descendants); you can offset a kid's lifetime carbon for ~$30k. Concludes: don't avoid kids for climate; donate to offsets instead.
Why this score
Quality 70 · Strong. Strong - clear, numerate, useful contrarian essay on a real anxiety, with a genuinely original counterintuitive argument (the political-skew effect dwarfs the direct-emissions effect) and a sharp debunk of the carbon-clan study. Held below Excellent as a topical persuasive piece applying Scott's standard numerate-contrarian method.
Claude’s paradigm shift 48 · Moderate. Moderate - the political-skew argument is a fresh angle; the rest applies standard climate-realism + his numerate method.
Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse essay on the climate-anxiety-childlessness trend; no material effect.